I’ve been looking into my crystal ball (or my coffee mug if you want to be literal) and here are my top tips for likely trends in fiction publishing in 2020.

My guesses are probably wrong, though. I had no idea that reverse harem would explode into the paranormal romance scene over the last couple of years or that LitRPG (fiction involving role playing games) would be so big.

First up, think villains. They are the inspiration for our heroes. “Twilight” did it for vampires and werewolves. Inverting things so that the traditional bad guy becomes the good guy is huge. So expect politicians to become detectives in murder mysteries and sexy heroes in contemporary romance. Yeah, you don’t think so? Wait for it. Also dictators in the place of princes (I’m not saying I like the idea).

In romance in particular, there’s a tendency for what we (readers, society) fear to be explored and even mythologised as a way of taming our fear. There are a lot of novels out there that explicitly address power exchange. In a world where many people feel powerless, stories that frame being powerless as sexy are an interesting form of escapism.

Expect to see our societal fears reflected back to us in fiction in an exaggerated manner. 2020 will bring us new visions of dystopia and apocalyptic landscapes. I hope that some authors manage to bring us utopian visions, too. I think there’ll be more war stories. I don’t like that genre, but war is real and its impact massive on our planet. It’ll be addressed in fiction sometimes by looking back (Ancient Rome, World War II) and by the solidly performing military science fiction subgenre.

Historical fiction might throw up a few surprises. It depends what captures the popular imagination. Vikings might lose some of their grip. There is a huge opportunity to explore current issues via the past. Human trafficking (a.k.a. slavery) is one such issue. Thrillers will likely tackle it. Will we end up with historical thrillers?

Ecofiction – fiction that engages with environmental issues – is an underexplored genre. One breakout novel and this field will explode. Both left and right wing political views can use fiction to frame their different visions – and should. Some of this is currently being done as dystopian fiction, but ecofiction offers so much more. Mysteries that involve our changing world. Romance that challenges people to fall in love in city slums. Happy ever afters that provide us with different ideas of what happiness entails.

I think there’ll be more band-of-brothers stories with people forming close groups and tackling incredible challenges. There’s some of this in superhero stories (unless they go the lone hero route), and the superhero subgenre will likely hold its grip on popular culture, but I think readers want the sense of belonging, feeding the aspiration to form your own unique tribe. Motorcycle gangs have been big in contemporary romance, along with mafia dark romances. Think of another bad boy group and it’ll probably take off.

That said, I’m still haunted by the gap in the market for an iconic drifter figure; someone to encapsulate the sublimated yearning of so many people for a home and a place to belong, but who holds true to a quest that is uniquely theirs and which is only obliquely referenced. Tantalising. Finding meaning in the search (journey) rather than the destination.

Finally, I think the demand for escapist hope will create new fantasies, both magical and real. A lot of cozy mysteries exploit these dreams: bed and breakfast, bookstore or coffee shop businesses; remote romantic locations like lighthouses; pets; and hobbies. If you can guess what people are aspiring to in their castles in the sky, you can appeal to those marketable dreams in a cozy story – whether it’s a mystery, romance or science fiction novel.

That’s my guesses for 2020. What are yours? And as readers, what are you hoping for?

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